What Are the Chances To Be Hit by Asteroid Bennu – Scientists Explain

Asteroid Bennu had stirred quite the controversy recently when a team of scientists reexamined the asteroid’s trajectory to figure out when it’ll collide with Earth.

For now, we are safe, but we’re not sure how it’ll be in the year 2182. Scientists released a full statement revealing new data of Bennu.

Here is what you need to know.

Bennu Has More Chance to Hit Us in About 150 Years

According to new measurements based on data collected by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx, the chance of Bennu hitting our planet by the year 2300 CE is a bit higher than some believed – one chance in 1,750 or 0.057 %.

Also, scientists worry a lot about this date: 24 September 2182. The asteroid will have one chance in 2,700 or 0.037 % of colliding with our planet.

Thanks to OSIRIS-REx, we now have more details about Bennu’s size, structure, and shape. Check out the video below for more details:

The Yarkovsky Effect Explained

The Yarkovsky effect represents a small but steady force that influences the orbital motion of asteroids and meteorites of about 30-40 kilometers.

The effect is triggered by sunlight, meaning the cosmic features will be heating up in the Sun and eventually re-radiate the power away as heat, resulting in a small thrust.

“The Yarkovsky effect will act on all asteroids of all sizes, […], OSIRIS-REx gave us the first opportunity to measure it in detail as Bennu traveled around the Sun,” explained Steve Chesley of NASA’s JPL.

Bennu vs. the Yarkovsky effect

The effect on asteroid Bennu is somehow similar to the weight of 3 grapes regularly acting on the asteroid. They’re small but important when figuring out the asteroid’s collision chances over the years to come.

However, scientists still believe that it’s unlikely that Bennu is going to hit us. Of course, we need more research and data to determine other things out, but we’re on the right track so far.